Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.7%
24h -0.1pp
7d -0.9pp
30d +4.0pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNRWA | 9.2% | +3.0pp | +1.0pp |
| Donald Trump | 7.5% | — | -1.0pp |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.5% | — | — |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 4.3% | +0.1pp | -0.4pp |
| Pope Leo XIV | 4.0% | -0.2pp | -0.4pp |
| Narendra Modi | 2.0% | -0.1pp | -0.4pp |
| International Court of Justice | 1.9% | +0.3pp | -0.3pp |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.5% | +0.3pp | -0.4pp |
| António Guterres | 1.3% | +0.4pp | +0.4pp |
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:05:56 UTCDrivers
- Canada pledges $100M for Palestinians facing settler violence — provides a concrete humanitarian commitment tied to a key conflict region, boosting UNRWA’s visibility
- Palestinian and Israeli civil society groups urge G7 to act on Gaza — raises the salience of diplomatic peace processes, indirectly lifting UNRWA and related institutional candidates
The biggest move in the Nobel Peace Prize market over the past 24 hours is a 3.0 percentage point surge for UNRWA, pushing its implied probability to 9.2%. This jump coincides with fresh diplomatic attention on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Canada announced $100 million in new funding for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, while Israeli and Palestinian civil society groups meeting in Paris called on G7 leaders to take concrete action on a ceasefire and two-state solution at next week’s summit in Évian. Traders appear to interpret these gestures as raising the profile of humanitarian and diplomatic actors tied to the region.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy lost 0.1 points but remains the market leader at 9.7%, a position he has held for weeks. His slight dip likely reflects traders rotating toward UNRWA rather than any negative news specific to Ukraine.
António Guterres saw a modest 0.4 point rise to 1.2%, and the International Court of Justice gained 0.3 points to 1.9%. These small moves may be correlated with the same Middle East diplomatic storyline, as both the UN Secretary-General and the ICJ are institutional figures increasingly visible in conflict mediation.
Donald Trump remains at 7.5% with no 24-hour change. His claim that the US and Iran are “on the verge” of a peace agreement was dismissed by Tehran, but the news does not appear to have shifted his odds. The market for early June is otherwise quiet, with thin volume likely amplifying small positional adjustments.