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All tracked outcomes
Outcome
Prob.
24h
7d
Flávio Bolsonaro
26.5%
-1.5pp
-1.8pp
Renan Santos
13.5%
-1.8pp
-3.0pp
Camilo Santana
2.3%
-1.5pp
-2.2pp
Fernando Haddad
1.9%
-0.5pp
-0.7pp
Ronaldo Caiado
1.5%
-0.1pp
-0.9pp
Romeu Zema
1.3%
-0.3pp
-2.0pp
Jair Bolsonaro
0.7%
—
—
Michelle Bolsonaro
0.7%
—
—
Geraldo Alckmin
0.4%
—
+0.1pp
30-day history: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
30d ago: 44.5%Today: 47.5%+3.0pp
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:02:08 UTC
The Brazil presidential election market shifted modestly over the past 24 hours, with Lula gaining two percentage points to 47.5% implied probability while his main rivals—Flávio Bolsonaro and Renan Santos—each lost more than a point. The move continues a seven-day trend that has added six points to Lula’s odds and subtracted nearly two from Flávio Bolsonaro.
No Brazil-specific political news appeared in the past 48 hours that could explain the shift. The only Brazil-related item in the feed is a research announcement from the Federal University of São Paulo about a Parkinson’s treatment, which carries no electoral weight. The broader news cycle is dominated by U.S. and European stories—Trump’s impeachment-expungement push, a U.S. surveillance-law standoff, and UK by-election campaigning—none of which have a direct bearing on the Brazilian race.
Traders appear to be extending a longer-term repricing that began roughly two weeks ago. Over the past 30 days, Lula’s odds have risen three points while Flávio Bolsonaro’s have fallen more than eight, suggesting a structural reassessment of the field rather than a reaction to any single event. The lack of fresh catalysts means volume may be thinnish, with the 24-hour move likely reflecting position adjustments by a small number of participants rather than a broad shift in sentiment.
Drivers
No clear news driver — No Brazil-specific political news in the past 48 hours; the 24-hour move appears to continue a longer-term trend driven by trader repositioning and thin volume.
The Brazil presidential election market shifted modestly over the past 24 hours, with Lula gaining two percentage points to 47.5% implied probability while his main rivals—Flávio Bolsonaro and Renan Santos—each lost more than a point. The move continues a seven-day trend that has added six points to Lula’s odds and subtracted nearly two from Flávio Bolsonaro.
No Brazil-specific political news appeared in the past 48 hours that could explain the shift. The only Brazil-related item in the feed is a research announcement from the Federal University of São Paulo about a Parkinson’s treatment, which carries no electoral weight. The broader news cycle is dominated by U.S. and European stories—Trump’s impeachment-expungement push, a U.S. surveillance-law standoff, and UK by-election campaigning—none of which have a direct bearing on the Brazilian race.
Traders appear to be extending a longer-term repricing that began roughly two weeks ago. Over the past 30 days, Lula’s odds have risen three points while Flávio Bolsonaro’s have fallen more than eight, suggesting a structural reassessment of the field rather than a reaction to any single event. The lack of fresh catalysts means volume may be thinnish, with the 24-hour move likely reflecting position adjustments by a small number of participants rather than a broad shift in sentiment.