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All tracked outcomes
Outcome
Prob.
24h
7d
Delcy Rodríguez
15.0%
+0.5pp
-4.0pp
María Corina Machado
3.6%
+0.2pp
-3.3pp
Jorge Rodríguez
0.8%
-0.1pp
+0.1pp
No Head of State
0.6%
—
-0.1pp
Edmundo González
0.5%
—
-0.1pp
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
0.4%
—
—
Donald Trump
0.4%
—
-0.2pp
Vladimir Padrino López
0.2%
—
+0.1pp
Dinorah Figuera
0.1%
—
—
30-day history: Nicolás Maduro
30d ago: 63.5%Today: 73.2%+9.7pp
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:05:04 UTC
Nicolás Maduro’s implied probability of remaining Venezuela’s leader through the end of 2026 crept up another 1.9 percentage points over the past day, reaching 72.5%. The move extends a month-long rally that has seen his odds rise from roughly 63.5% to their current level, with a brief spike above 79% before receding.
No single piece of news accounts for the latest leg. The only Venezuela‑specific item in the past 48 hours — a diplomatic spat with Trinidad and Tobago over an oil spill — is far too narrow to drive a broad reassessment of Maduro’s political durability. Traders appear instead to be continuing a gradual repricing that has favoured the incumbent at the expense of other potential successors. Delcy Rodríguez, long seen as the most likely alternative, has seen her odds slide 8.5 points over the past 30 days, while María Corina Machado has shed 3.9 points over the same period.
The market may be reflecting a growing consensus that Maduro’s grip on power remains firm, with no credible transition narrative emerging from the ruling Chavismo faction. Thin liquidity could also be amplifying directional bets. Absent a clear catalyst, the latest uptick looks like a continuation of existing sentiment rather than a reaction to fresh information.
Drivers
No clear news driver — The only Venezuela-specific news — a diplomatic row with Trinidad and Tobago over an oil spill — is too minor to account for Maduro’s 1.9pp rise. The move appears driven by momentum and thin volume, continuing a month-long consolidation trend.
Nicolás Maduro’s implied probability of remaining Venezuela’s leader through the end of 2026 crept up another 1.9 percentage points over the past day, reaching 72.5%. The move extends a month-long rally that has seen his odds rise from roughly 63.5% to their current level, with a brief spike above 79% before receding.
No single piece of news accounts for the latest leg. The only Venezuela‑specific item in the past 48 hours — a diplomatic spat with Trinidad and Tobago over an oil spill — is far too narrow to drive a broad reassessment of Maduro’s political durability. Traders appear instead to be continuing a gradual repricing that has favoured the incumbent at the expense of other potential successors. Delcy Rodríguez, long seen as the most likely alternative, has seen her odds slide 8.5 points over the past 30 days, while María Corina Machado has shed 3.9 points over the same period.
The market may be reflecting a growing consensus that Maduro’s grip on power remains firm, with no credible transition narrative emerging from the ruling Chavismo faction. Thin liquidity could also be amplifying directional bets. Absent a clear catalyst, the latest uptick looks like a continuation of existing sentiment rather than a reaction to fresh information.