Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 82.8%
24h +0.9pp
7d +2.6pp
30d +2.7pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 9.5% | +0.5pp | -2.0pp |
| María Corina Machado | 3.2% | +0.3pp | +0.1pp |
| No Head of State | 0.9% | — | — |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.7% | +0.1pp | +0.1pp |
| Edmundo González | 0.4% | — | — |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.4% | — | -0.1pp |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.2% | -0.1pp | -0.1pp |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0.1% | — | — |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | — | — |
What's moving this market
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:01:28 UTCDrivers
- Trump says U.S. has sold more than $13 billion of Venezuela oil since Maduro's capture — reinforces status quo of Maduro in power but stripped of oil revenue control, supporting continued stability of his nominal leadership
The prediction market for Venezuela's leader at year-end 2026 continues to drift incrementally toward Nicolás Maduro, whose implied probability rose 0.9 percentage points to 82.8% over the past 24 hours. The move extends a longer-term trend — Maduro's odds have gained 2.6 points over the past week and 2.7 points over the past month — without a dramatic spike.
No single piece of breaking news directly addresses a change in Venezuela's political leadership structure. The most relevant item is a statement from President Donald Trump on Monday that the U.S. has sold more than $13 billion of Venezuelan oil since taking control of the South American nation's energy exports. The announcement may reinforce traders' perception that the current U.S.-backed arrangement — with Maduro in power but stripped of control over oil revenues — is stable enough to persist through year-end.
Other major headlines from the past 24 hours are largely unrelated: the inauguration of Keiko Fujimori as Peru's president, the funeral of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham drawing world leaders, and visits from Ukraine's and Israel's leaders to Washington. None of these developments touch on Venezuela's internal power dynamics.
The market's drift appears to reflect positioning adjustments rather than reaction to fresh catalysts. Volumes are not notably elevated, and the 30-day chart shows a gradual upward slope for Maduro with no sharp inflection points. Traders on prediction-market forums note the lack of any credible challenge to Maduro's position from the opposition or internal chavismo rivals, which the current odds appear to price in.