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Lula’s implied probability of winning Brazil’s presidential election hit 63.5% on Tuesday, a one-point jump in 24 hours and the highest reading in at least 30 days. The move was dr
Leading: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · 9 more outcomes tracked
The market for 2026’s highest-grossing film saw a modest shift over the past 24 hours: *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* slipped one percentage point to 81.5%, while *Avengers: Doomsday*
Leading: Spider-Man: Brand New Day · 9 more outcomes tracked
The market for the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion remains heavily skewed toward Kimi Antonelli at 75%, but the past 24 hours saw only minor drift: Antonelli dipped 0.4 percentage points
Leading: Kimi Antonelli · 9 more outcomes tracked
The market for a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 barely budged in the past 24 hours, rising just 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. That move is negligible and within the range of typical d
Leading: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Xavier Becerra’s implied probability of winning the California governor’s race ticked up marginally to 92.7%, continuing a gradual 30-day climb from around 89.7%. The market has be
Leading: Xavier Becerra · 9 more outcomes tracked
A single Venezuela-specific news item dominated the market's attention over the past 24 hours, yet the price moves were modest and uneven.
Leading: Nicolás Maduro · 9 more outcomes tracked
The largest 24-hour shifts in the Nobel Peace Prize market hit the UN Relief and Works Agency and Pope Leo XIV.
Leading: Yulia Navalnaya · 9 more outcomes tracked