#1 Politics
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Leading: Save the Children · 9 more outcomes tracked
8%
-10.8pp 24h
Prizma
A 4-minute daily read of what real money is betting on.
Every weekday morning, the biggest prediction-market move — explained with sourced context. Free, no spam.
Moving nowSat, 12 Sep 2026 00:00:03 GMT
Biggest odds moves — last 24 hours
7 tracked marketsDisclosure: Polymarket links are affiliate. We earn a small commission if you trade — it doesn't influence which markets we cover.
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- #2 Sports
F1 Drivers' Champion
Kimi Antonelli’s implied probability for the F1 Drivers’ Champion title edged up 0.9 percentage points in the past 24 hours to 86.3%, continuing a week-long surge. The move appears
Leading: Kimi Antonelli · 9 more outcomes tracked
86%+0.9pp 24h - #3 Science
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
The probability that 2026 brings a hantavirus pandemic drifted down to 2.5% over the past 24 hours, continuing a month-long slide from roughly 3.7%. The move is modest and comes wi
Leading: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3%-0.5pp 24h - #4 Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
Leading: Flávio Bolsonaro · 9 more outcomes tracked
52%-0.3pp 24h - #5 Politics
California Governor Election Winner
The market for California’s next governor remained nearly frozen over the past 24 hours, with Xavier Becerra holding an implied probability of 95.3% — a negligible increase of 0.2
Leading: Xavier Becerra · 9 more outcomes tracked
95%+0.2pp 24h - #6 Politics
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
The market for Venezuela’s leader at year-end remains heavily anchored on Nicolás Maduro.
Leading: Nicolás Maduro · 9 more outcomes tracked
84%+0.2pp 24h - #7 Culture
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Traders continue to price *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as the near-certain highest-grossing film of 2026, with implied probability rising two percentage points over the past month t
Leading: Spider-Man: Brand New Day · 9 more outcomes tracked
94%— 24h