Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 44.5%
24h +4.0pp
7d -12.0pp
30d -22.0pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toy Story 5 | 25.3% | -7.8pp | +9.9pp |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 14.5% | +1.0pp | -3.0pp |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 8.1% | +4.6pp | +4.0pp |
| The Odyssey | 1.9% | +0.2pp | -1.0pp |
| Dune: Messiah | 0.7% | — | -0.2pp |
| Wicked: For Good | 0.5% | — | — |
| Scream 7 | 0.5% | — | — |
| Wuthering Heights | 0.5% | — | — |
| Jumanji 3 | 0.5% | — | — |
Reddit chatter
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:06:42 UTCDrivers
- No clear news driver — The move lacks a clear news catalyst; likely reflects profit-taking from Toy Story 5’s recent surge and a return to Spider-Man as a relative safe haven.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day gained 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing to 44.5% implied probability, while Toy Story 5 dropped 7.8 points to 25.2% and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie rose 4.6 points to 8.1%. The swing appears to be a reversal of recent trends: over the prior seven days Toy Story 5 had surged 9.9 points and Spider-Man had lost 12.0 points. The 24-hour move lacks any direct news catalyst tied to either film.
No major updates — such as trailer releases, advance ticket sales, or critical reception — have emerged for Spider-Man, Toy Story, or Mario. The only box-office news in the period is a Reddit post on r/boxoffice tracking a weak German opening for Disney’s *Disclosure Day*, which is unrelated to the top contenders. Traders may be rotating out of Toy Story 5 after its recent run-up, or returning to Spider-Man as a more established bet after its sharp 30-day decline.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s gain, while smaller in absolute terms, mirrors the pattern of a flight back to safer IP. Without a clear informational trigger, the moves appear driven by technical repositioning, thin volume, or sentiment shifts among prediction-market participants rather than fresh data on the films themselves.