Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 95.5%
24h —
7d —
30d +2.0pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 3.9% | — | -0.4pp |
| Dune: Messiah | 0.1% | +0.1pp | +0.1pp |
| Wicked: For Good | 0.1% | — | — |
| Wuthering Heights | 0.1% | — | — |
| Scream 7 | 0.1% | — | — |
| Michael | 0.1% | — | — |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 0.1% | — | — |
| Toy Story 5 | 0.1% | — | — |
| The Odyssey | 0.1% | — | -0.1pp |
What's moving this market
Updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026 12:02:19 UTCDrivers
- No clear news driver — No relevant news for this market in the past 24 hours; the price move appears to stem from thin trading volume or continued sentiment from earlier positive pre-sale data.
The market for 2026's highest-grossing movie remains overwhelmingly tilted toward *Spider-Man: Brand New Day*, which now sits at a 95.5% implied probability — a 2 percentage point rise over the past 30 days. The past 24 hours have brought no news directly related to the film's box-office prospects or its competition, and the top outcomes have been essentially static, suggesting the move reflects a longer-term trend rather than a fresh catalyst.
*Avengers: Doomsday* has slipped slightly to 3.9%, while *Dune: Messiah* and *The Odyssey* each ticked only marginally. None of the recent news items — a Guardian report on an ABC journalist's disciplinary dispute, the casting of Sacha Baron Cohen in a Quentin Tarantino stage play, or a Forbes piece on *Practical Magic 2* moving to streaming — have any bearing on the major studio tentpoles that dominate this market. The thinness of relevant headlines underscores how settled the market has become: traders appear to view *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* as a juggernaut in the making, with little to challenge it.
No single news event accounts for the 24-hour price action. The movement is likely due to low-volume drift or a handful of traders repositioning in the absence of new information. On Reddit's r/boxoffice, chatter remains focused on the Spider-Man film's strong pre-sale reports from prior weeks, but users cite no breaking developments. Market odds appear to reflect a consensus that the sequel to a billion-dollar franchise will reign, with competitors failing to generate meaningful buzz.