Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 81.5%
24h —
7d +7.0pp
30d +10.5pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 11.5% | +1.0pp | -4.5pp |
| The Odyssey | 2.5% | -0.2pp | -1.0pp |
| Toy Story 5 | 1.4% | -0.5pp | -4.0pp |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 0.5% | — | +0.3pp |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 0.4% | — | — |
| Dune: Messiah | 0.4% | — | -0.1pp |
| Jumanji 3 | 0.4% | — | — |
| Wicked: For Good | 0.1% | — | — |
| Scream 7 | 0.1% | — | — |
Reddit chatter
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
What's moving this market
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:01:47 UTCDrivers
- World premiere coverage for Spider-Man: Brand New Day — provided minor positive media attention but no new box-office data to shift odds meaningfully
- No clear news driver — The market's 24-hour moves are negligible; Spider-Man's multi-week consolidation reflects accumulated tracking and confidence rather than a single news catalyst
Spider-Man: Brand New Day remains the overwhelming favorite for 2026's highest-grossing movie, with odds climbing to 81.5% — a 10.5 percentage point gain over the past 30 days and a 7-point rise in the last week. The 24-hour move is small, and the market has seen little new information directly affecting the race.
The film's world premiere on July 28 generated positive media coverage but no revelatory box-office projections or audience reaction data that would shift expectations among traders. Odds have been steadily consolidating around Spider-Man for weeks, implying that early tracking and advance buzz have been strong enough to price out challengers.
Among competitors, Avengers: Doomsday saw a minor uptick of 1 point in the past day, possibly reflecting residual positioning after its 7-day slide of 4.5 points. Toy Story 5 continued a gentle decline, falling 0.5 points in 24 hours and 4 points over the past week, suggesting traders see it as unlikely to challenge the top spot. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, once a more serious contender, has dropped nearly 4 points over 30 days.
A Reddit discussion on r/boxoffice questioned whether the Barbenheimer phenomenon was overcredited for Oppenheimer's performance, using The Odyssey as a case study. This appears to be general market chatter rather than a direct signal for any specific film's odds.
Overall, the market is stable and concentrated on Spider-Man, with no major news driving sudden rebalancing. The trend reflects accumulating confidence in the Marvel sequel's commercial dominance as its release nears.