US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31 97.0%
24h +14.4pp
7d +29.4pp
30d +30.4pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 96.7% | +21.2pp | +40.2pp |
| August 31 | 96.5% | +28.0pp | +54.9pp |
| June 30 | 94.5% | +49.0pp | +79.0pp |
| July 31 | 94.5% | +37.0pp | +65.0pp |
| June 15 | 88.1% | +67.2pp | +82.7pp |
Reddit chatter
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
- BREAKING: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its pre-war state, and that no ceasefire, deal, or a resumption of war will change that, per Tasnim. Deputy FM Gharibabadi says the…
- All of this was because mango's Iran deal was worse than Obama's and his ego was humiliated by that fact
- * TRUMP: THERE'S CHANCE WE CAN MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN * TRUMP: IRAN WANTS TO MEET AND WE'RE MEETING
- Iran says it still controls strait, not seeking talks, after Trump halts bombing
What's moving this market
Updated Mon, 15 Jun 2026 12:00:39 UTCDrivers
- BREAKING: US, Iran announce ceasefire agreement — The core catalyst: Trump's announcement sent all expiry dates sharply higher overnight.
- Oil prices fall and shares jump after US-Iran deal announced — Market response reinforces the perceived credibility of the agreement.
- Pakistan PM says signing of agreement – as it happened — Confirmation of a formal June 19 signing ceremony in Geneva anchors the near-term June 30 and July 31 contracts.
- Iran war live: Tehran says 'peace deal' ends US blockade — Iranian official endorsement reduces odds of last-minute collapse.
- Trump to meet with G7 leaders following announcement — Superpower diplomatic coordination adds weight to the deal's permanence.
Traders rushed into "Yes" positions across all expiry dates after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran late on June 14, confirmed by Pakistani mediators and Iranian officials within hours. The near-term June 15 contract surged 67 percentage points to 88% — the largest single-day move in the market's history — reflecting expectations that a formal signing could occur as early as Friday in Geneva.
Oil prices fell sharply and global equity markets rose on the news, per multiple reports, signaling investor confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The Guardian and other outlets noted that Iran's deputy foreign minister called the deal an "immediate end" to the war, including the conflict in Lebanon. Australian and European leaders issued statements welcoming the agreement, and G7 leaders are scheduled to meet in Evian on June 15 to discuss next steps.
Despite the bullish sentiment, traders may be pricing in some residual uncertainty. Hardliners in Iran are pushing to reject the deal, per a Guardian report on June 14, and Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburbs on the same day — a reminder that regional dynamics remain volatile. The Washington Post-style Reuters voice here would note that the deal's durability is unproven, and the December 31 contract, which now sits at 97%, has room to fall if implementation falters.
The market's 30-day history shows a dramatic spike only in the final days, with most of the move concentrated in the last 48 hours — aligning squarely with the ceasefire announcement.