US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31 77.5%
24h +1.5pp
7d +6.0pp
30d +15.0pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 72.5% | +2.0pp | +10.0pp |
| August 31 | 61.5% | +4.0pp | +12.0pp |
| July 31 | 51.5% | +10.0pp | +12.0pp |
| June 30 | 41.5% | +9.0pp | +18.0pp |
| June 15 | 17.9% | +5.0pp | +8.5pp |
Reddit chatter
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
- CNN did a montage of the 39 times Trump said a deal with Iran was happening. How in the FUCK does this market keep rallying on this stupid bullshit man
- Iran says deal to end fighting with US has 'never been closer'
- U.S. and Iran have 'final, agreed upon text' of a deal, Pakistan prime minister says
- U.S. and Iran have 'final, agreed upon text' of a deal, Pakistan prime minister says
- Trump Claims Iran Tried To Attack Indian Ships With Drones, Slams Deal 'Leak'
- Donald Trump claims Iran leaked false information on peace deal terms
- Iran-US agreement will end Lebanon war, unfreeze Iranian assets, Mehr claims
- We got the World Cup, SPCX IPO, and Iran deal. Shiiiiit bois, we might see SPY at 750 today.
- **U.S. stock futures rise on signs of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal** **They have milked this headline 40 times with the span of months**
- Lmaooo anyone seen the 14 point plan that Iran says is the "peace deal"? It's essentially a full capitulation of the US, paying war reparations, unfreezing Iranian assets and removing all their…
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:33 UTCDrivers
- Pakistan PM says final agreed text of US-Iran peace deal reached — most direct positive catalyst, driving odds up across near-term contracts
- Guardian describes "Trump rollercoaster" with conflicting claims — reinforces uncertainty but does not dent rally
- Trump distances from earlier deal optimism, calls Iranians "dishonorable" — negative signal, but market appears to discount it
- Iran says no final peace agreement reached — contradicts Pakistan PM, but market sides with positive news
to Pakistan PM's newsto Pakistan PM's newsto Pakistan PM's newsto Pakistan PM's news
I should keep DRIVERS to top few. Let me refine.
Also note: The r/news and r/worldnews posts about Pakistan PM have high scores, indicating broad attention. That's the key.
Final output. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal has surged across all time horizons in the past 24 hours, with the July 31 contract gaining 10 percentage points and the June 30 contract climbing 9 points. Traders appear to be pricing in an imminent breakthrough despite a cacophony of conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran.
The most concrete catalyst came from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who stated that a final agreed text of a peace deal between the US and Iran had been reached, with Islamabad working to finalize next steps. That claim, reported widely, provided the clearest signal that an accord may be ready for signing. Earlier, Donald Trump had said the two sides were on the verge of an agreement and canceled fresh missile strikes, only to later describe the Iranians as “very dishonorable people to deal with.” Iran’s foreign ministry repeatedly denied that any final decision had been made, and state media insisted Tehran would not cede control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflicting narratives have frustrated some traders. A top comment on r/wallstreetbets noted that CNN had compiled 39 instances of Trump claiming a deal was imminent, asking why the market “keeps rallying on this stupid bullshit.” Yet the Pakistan prime minister’s intervention appears to have overridden skepticism. The 30-day chart shows a similar spike earlier, followed by a pullback; the latest rally suggests traders are betting that this time the diplomatic momentum is real, even if details remain unsettled.