Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIA 94.0%
24h +0.5pp
7d +5.0pp
30d +8.5pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 3.8% | +0.5pp | -0.5pp |
| Apple | 1.4% | -1.8pp | -5.1pp |
| Microsoft | 0.1% | — | — |
| Tesla | 0.1% | — | — |
| Amazon | 0.1% | — | — |
| Saudi Aramco | 0.1% | — | — |
Reddit chatter
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
- musk turns his popularity into stock price, this is a known fact. tesla makes a third of what toyota makes but is 6 times more valuable. trading at a whopping 317 p/e. the entire valuation is built…
- Elon Musk + 0 earnings = trillion dollar company why doesn't he just start more companies is he stupid?
- Elon Musk's aura has created 2 trillion dollar companies both with a bag of chips in revenue
- apparently meta asked its employees to stop using ai 'too much' because it is costing them billions fucking lol at this ai slop tbh
- I Hope all of elons fanboy migrate from Tesla to SpaceX so we can at least crash one shitcompany from existence
- Anyone that thought spacex was going down on IPO day doesn’t understand how fake and gay the market is. Tesla has been trading at ridiculous multiples for years. They can do that here too, with like……
- What's your limit for MSFT?
- Sigh dude. Fuck Elon, fuck SpaceX. Fucking fuck sucked all the money out of the stock market. And despite falling 10% from ATH's as of yestrday. AMZN STILL FUCKING DROPPED ANOTHER 2%. FUCK MY GODDAMN…
- 2.2 trillion dollar valuation providing internet to Ted Kaczynski types? Calls it is
- **Hear me out… we send water into space to make free ice… trillion dollar idea right there**
What's moving this market
Updated Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:02:55 UTCDrivers
- No clear news driver — No single news item explains the 0.5pp increase in NVIDIA’s odds — the move appears to be noise in a market that has already priced NVIDIA’s lead as near-certain.
The market for the largest company by market capitalization at the end of June remains a near-foregone conclusion, with NVIDIA priced at 94.0% — up just 0.5 percentage points in the past 24 hours. No material news has emerged about NVIDIA or its primary rivals (Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft) to explain that tiny uptick. The 30-day chart shows NVIDIA has traded between 83.5% and 95.0%, gradually consolidating near the top of that range, and the latest move is consistent with noise in a low-volume environment.
The major financial story of the day — SpaceX’s stock market debut and its market cap quickly topping $2 trillion — has no direct bearing on the listed outcomes. SpaceX is not one of the seven companies in this market, so its valuation does not alter the relative standings of NVIDIA, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, or Saudi Aramco. Reddit chatter on r/wallstreetbets has focused heavily on Elon Musk’s paper-trillionaire status and the SpaceX IPO, but none of that sentiment appears to have spilled over into bets on Tesla (0.1%, unchanged) or other Musk-linked names in this contract.
The implied probabilities for Alphabet (3.8%, up 0.5pp) and Apple (1.4%, down 1.8pp) shifted slightly, but no headline accounts for Apple’s drop or Alphabet’s rise. The movement likely reflects ordinary positioning adjustments or thin liquidity rather than a discernible catalyst. Traders are simply pricing that NVIDIA’s market capitalization advantage is secure through June 30, absent an unforeseen crash or a competitor’s sudden surge.