F1 Drivers' Champion
Kimi Antonelli 74.9%
24h -0.1pp
7d +0.6pp
30d +22.5pp
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All tracked outcomes
| Outcome | Prob. | 24h | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 10.0% | +0.1pp | -1.3pp |
| George Russell | 5.5% | — | -3.0pp |
| Lando Norris | 3.9% | +0.8pp | +2.1pp |
| Charles Leclerc | 3.0% | +0.1pp | — |
| Max Verstappen | 1.8% | — | -0.2pp |
| Oscar Piastri | 0.4% | — | -0.4pp |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.1% | — | — |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.1% | — | -0.1pp |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 0.1% | — | — |
Reddit chatter
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:03 UTCRecent posts and comments from across Reddit mentioning this market. Refreshed every 15 minutes.
- “He wrote me a long message saying I was a coward. He said give the animal a chance to fight you back at least. He unfollowed and blocked me.”- Jon Jones says Lewis Hamilton went off in his DMs for killing a pig from a helicopter
- [Motorsport]The data behind George Russell’s engine software issue that caused his Hungarian GP slow start
- F1 2026 Elimination Championship: Round 11 (Hungarian Grand Prix)
- Mercedes not sure if George Russell’s ‘cracked’ F1 engine can be repaired
- Palmer: "The bit that frustrated me watching this in the commentary box, was the next thing that happened...having just forced the net race leader off track, we are now impeding him through two more turns"
- Hungary 2026 wasn't the only time a backmarker disrespected Oscar Piastri, it happened about a year earlier in Austria as well...
- Kimi Antonelli Hit With A Lawsuit From Ex-Manager Giovanni Minardi
- What if Mercedes played ADUO at Monza to counter Ferrari's offensive? An engine is being prepared at Brixworth for the Italian GP
- Following his win in Hungary, Lando Norris has converted 9 of his 17 pole positions into victories, which gives him a win rate from pole above 50%. (9/17 - 52.94%)
- Top 10 Onboards | 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix
What's moving this market
Updated Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:06 UTCDrivers
- No clear news driver — George Russell engine concern (r/formula1 chatter) — may have contributed to small drift away from Russell, but Antonelli odds unchanged.
The market for the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion remained heavily anchored on Kimi Antonelli at 74.9%, with almost no movement over the past 24 hours. The most notable shift was a small 0.8 percentage-point gain for Lando Norris to 3.9%, while George Russell slipped 3.0 points on the week to 5.5%.
No direct news about Antonelli emerged yesterday, but Reddit chatter on r/formula1 focused on two Mercedes-related concerns. Reports that George Russell’s engine may have a "cracked" component that cannot be repaired, linked to his slow start at the Hungarian Grand Prix, may have dented confidence in his title hopes. Separately, discussion of a heated direct-message exchange involving Lewis Hamilton and UFC fighter Jon Jones — apparently unrelated to racing performance — appears to have had no material effect on Hamilton’s odds, which held steady at 10.0%.
The broader market structure shows Antonelli’s lead has been building for weeks, with his implied probability surging 22.5 points over the past 30 days. Traders appear to view him as the clear championship favorite mid-season, with no rival closing the gap. The lack of 24-hour movement suggests the market is waiting for fresh on-track results before repricing.