Fed decision in April?

The market for an April 2026 Fed rate decision has become nearly unanimous: "No change" now sits at 99.2%, up 0.2 percentage points in the past 24 hours and nearly 6 points higher over the past month. The 30-day chart tells the cleaner story — probability climbed steadily from around 94% to near certainty as political turbulence around the Fed intensified without actually shifting monetary policy.

The relevant backdrop is the ongoing White House pressure campaign against Jerome Powell. Trump's reported threat to fire Powell if he doesn't leave by May, covered widely in financial media, and Senate Democrats' move to stall Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing both add noise to the institutional picture. Paradoxically, these stories appear to reinforce rather than undermine the "no change" case: the more politically charged the environment, the less likely the Fed is to cut rates in April and hand the White House any appearance of capitulation.

No single news item in the past 24 hours cleanly accounts for the small 0.2-point daily move — that likely reflects thin repositioning rather than a fresh catalyst. The real price action happened over weeks, as traders steadily priced out any remaining probability of a cut or hike. The odds now imply traders view an April move as essentially impossible, with the Fed expected to hold steady regardless of executive branch pressure. The sub-1% residual split between "cut" and "hike" scenarios is noise at this point. The market's near-certainty reflects a consensus that the Fed will not act before its situation — both politically and economically — becomes far clearer.